Abatement costs of post-Kyoto climate regimes

The three post-Kyoto regimes explored are: 

1. the rule-based Multi-Stage approach assumes a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved who are adopting quantified intensity targets or reductions; 
2. the Brazilian Proposal approach, i.e. the allocation of reductions based on countries’ contribution to temperature increase; 
3. Contraction & Convergence, with full participation in convergence of per capita emission allowances. In 2050, the global costs increase up to about 1% of the world GDP, ranging from 0.3-1.5%, and mainly dependent on baseline scenario, marginal abatement costs and stabilisation level.  

Four groups of regions can be identified on the basis of similar costs (expressed as percentage of GDP). These are: 

1. OECD regions with average costs; 
2. FSU, the Middle East and Latin America with high costs; 
3. South-East Asia & East Asia (incl. China) with low costs; 
4. South Asia (incl. India) and Africa with net gains from emissions trading for most regimes.  

The Brazilian Proposal approach is least attractive for groups 1 and 2. The attractiveness of the Contraction & Convergence approach highly depends on the convergence year. The Multi-Stage approach and Contraction & Convergence (convergence year 2050) seem to provide the best prospects for most of the Parties.