Scenarios: guidance for an uncertain and complex world?
Scenarios are novel tools to explore an increasingly uncertain and complex world. Their increasing use reflects the limitations of the control paradigm as well as the rise of democratic pluralism in values and behavior. In conjunction with simulation models, the scenario approach has been applied in several large global change projects.
To draw lessons for future scenario projects, this chapter reviews two projects: TARGETS and SRES. To improve the next round of global change scenarios, suggestions are made: First, we must acknowledge the need to deal adequately with scientific knowledge and the insights from a branch like “complexity science.” Second, people’s values must be taken explicitly into consideration. Simulation games and policy exercise are helpful in this respect.
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Specifications
- Publication title
- Scenarios: guidance for an uncertain and complex world?
- Publication date
- 31 January 2007
- Publication type
- Publication
- Magazine
- In: Costanza R, Graumlich LJ, Steffen W, eds. Sustainability or collapse? Cambridge: MIT Press, 2007;379-98
- Product number
- 91939