Projections of multi-gas emissions and carbon sinks, and marginal abatement cost functions modelling for land-use related sources

The potential for emission abatement is based on the GECS baseline scenario for the period 1995-2030 for agriculture, and land use developed with the IMAGE 2.2 model framework. The cost categories distinguished for the different emission reduction measures (ERM) include investment costs, and operation and maintenance costs, and possible revenues. These costs and revenues vary on the basis of regional estimates of costs for investments and labour, and savings and revenues. In the GECS baseline scenario the CH4 emissions from landfills and sewage strongly increase in most world regions between 1995 and 2030 as a result of fast population growth and urbanization.

As a consequence, the potential emission reduction also increases. For the estimation of the implementation degree of ERMs, assumptions are used on the basis of literature data. Costs of C plantations include those for land, forest establishment, land preparation, plant material, planting, and operation and maintenance of the plantation. The costs of C sequestration are obtained by combining the annuitized costs per hectare for each region with the per hectare average annual C sequestration rate; These costs are calculated as the mean during a 50-year period.

The former Soviet Union has by far the highest potential for C sequestration at relatively low costs. Results for full implementation indicate the C sequestration potential, while results for lower implementation degrees illustrate the effect of socio-economic and other barriers that prevent realization of carbon plantations. The MAC curves developed cannot be directly used in combination with other than the GECS scenario, since both the potential emission abatement and the degree of implementation of ERMs need to be adjusted to the different scenario context. The MAC curves developed in this study and in other bottom-up costing studies are discontinuous, because ERMs are assumed to be implemented one-by-one on the basis of their cost-effectiveness.