Uncertainty and RIVM's Environmental Outlooks: Documenting a learning process

Politics, policy and society increasingly demand for more insight in the robustness of environmental outlooks (future projections). This report describes what the RIVM, in cooperation with ICIS (university of Maastricht) has recently investigated concerning uncertainties, and how these results have been used in integrated policy analyses. The research consisted partly of selective document-analyses of previous Environmental Outlooks to analyse how uncertainty has been managed in these documents. As a complement, meetings and workshops have been organised with part of the RIVM-management and researchers. The final overall-picture on how uncertainty management was accomplished, is completed by performing group-interviews with a number of researchers who have played an active role during the most recent Environmental Outlook.