Reference projections energy and emissions 2005 - 2020

Kyoto target probably met

Energy consumption continues to grow in both scenarios and energy intensity is declining in the GE-scenario. Gradual rise of temperature is now included in the estimates for space heating and air conditioning. Energy prices for end users will rise, due to increased imports of natural gas and rising costs of electricity generation. The share of renewables in electricity consumption increases considerably due to subsidies for wind at sea and biomass, up to the target of 9% in 2010. Emissions of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases are reduced and stabilise after 2010. The Dutch Kyoto target is probably met in both scenarios, assuming considerable emission reduction efforts abroad.

Air-pollution targets uncertain

Acidifying emissions of NO_x and SO₂ stabilise after reductions, but at levels that exceed their national emission ceiling (NEC). Emissions of volatile organic compounds are projected to fall with approximately 25% between 2002 and 2010 below their NEC. Emissions of ammonia are projected to meet their NEC. The emission of particulate matter (PM₁₀) will stabilise at present levels.

Report

The Reference Projections energy and emissions 2005-2020, are published by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) for the Dutch Government.