Global energy futures: An integrated perspective with the TIME-model

Given the exogenous drivers like population size and economic activities, the energy demand, fuel mix, fuel prices, energy investments and CO₂ emissions are calculated and compared with observed values. Assumptions to be made for deriving a suitable fit with the observed values were discussed as well as the methodology as used for scenario construction, uncertainties and assumptions on structural change, energy efficiency improvements, long-term supply cost curves of fossil fuel resources and technology in energy supply options.

An application of the scenario methodology is discussed where a reference scenario is constructed based on the IS92a scenario of the IPCC. Furthermore, some scenarios from other institutions are investigated by assessing their outcomes in terms of the underlying assumptions. Next subjects described are futures according to alternative perspectives or world views ; some results of optimised mitigation strategies using the CYCLES module of TARGETS to assess the impacts of scenarios ; the role of technological change in meeting climate change policy targets.