Flood protection in the Netherlands: framing long-term challenges and options for a climate-resilient delta

The Netherlands will be able to cope with sea level rise for centuries to come

For the Netherlands, being a country with one of the most densely populated deltas, one of the threats of climate change is sea level rise. Future sea level rise is surrounded by large uncertainties, but analysis reveals that the Netherlands will be able to cope with sea level rise for many centuries to come, even in a worst-case scenario of 1.5 metres sea level rise per century. The main challenge is not the long-term development of the coastal defences, but rather the long-term protection of the densely populated areas in the lower reaches of the Rhine, where sea level rise will interact with river discharges.

Large-scale transitions, such as the transfer of investments to high-lying areas of the country or the development of a new extensive coastal zone are unnecessary from a floof protection viewpoint. Instead, a strategy that focuses on a further differentiation between protection levels in combination with the construction of ‘floodable’ dykes, will significantly reduce the risks of economic losses and human casualties. When combined with spatial planning in the river areas, including the south-western Zeeland delta and the IJsselmeer, this strategy will also ensure flexibility and room for water management changes that may become necessary in the future. In addition, such an approach will offer important opportunities for creating synergy with the protection and development of internationally important landscapes and nature values.