Modelling the hydro-geochemistry of acid-sensitive catchments in Finland under atmospheric deposition and biomass harvesting scenarios

The dynamic hydro-geochemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to historic and future atmospheric deposition (1880–2100) and future tree harvesting practices. Deposition was assumed to follow current legislated European emission reduction policies (CLe) and a scenario based on maximum (technically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future harvesting was assumed to shift from stem-only harvesting (SOH) to whole-tree harvesting (WTH) owing to the potential increased utilisation of biofuels.

Despite the modest changes in atmospheric deposition under CLe (compared to current day), these reductions are predicted to halt the decline in soil base saturation; however, further reductions are required to improve soil and lake water chemistry. The MFR scenario predicted a significant long-term improvement in soil base saturation leading to continued long-term recovery in surface waters (all lakes with ANC > 0 by 2100). However under the WTH scenario, significant long-term impacts (re-acidification) were predicted for soil and surface water chemistry (14 lakes with ANC < 0 by 2100).

To some extent the long-term negative impacts were reduced under MFR, indicating that increased utilisation of biofuels will necessitate ‘trading emissions for timber’, or soil amendment, to maintain ecosystem quality and sustainable forest growth. The current practice of SOH is close to the sustainable maximum harvesting under current (legislated) atmospheric deposition in Finland.