Projecting labour productivity
Four scenarios on the future shape of the labour force were developed as part of the research programme for spatial development and policy on European level (ESPON) in the project on Demographic and Migratory Flows affecting European Regions and Cities (DEMIFER). The research was conducted by an international consortium of researchers, including PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The EU labour force has expanded steadily over the second half of the last century. Looking ahead, to anticipate potential labour force trajectories, four policy scenarios were formulated reflecting the influence of better or worse economic conditions and policy intended to promote social and regional cohesion.
If, in the future, labour force growth were to slow down or even become negative, productivity would become an even more important driver of economic growth. Across all four policy scenarios, prosperity is expected to fall markedly in the future if labour productivity does not improve. Under a continuation of the current level of productivity, according to the four scenarios, this would lead to a big drop in prosperity in EU countries by 2050, ranging from a decrease in GDP per capita of about 10% in the Expanding Market Europe scenario to about 20% in the Limited Social Europe scenario. As these figures illustrate, there is an urgent need to ensure growth in labour productivity across Europe. Therefore, in addition to implementing policies aimed at increasing the size of the labour force, there should also be policies to raise labour productivity.
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- Publication title
- Projecting labour productivity
- Publication date
- 10 March 2015
- Publication type
- Publication