Modelling recovery from soil acidification in European forests under climate change

Model results showed a strong effect of the emission reduction scenarios on soil solution chemistry. Using the Current Legislation (CLE) scenario, the forest area in Europe with soil solution Al/Bc >1 mol/mol (a widely used critical limit) decreased from about 4% in 1990 to about 1.7% in 2050. Under Maximum Feasible Reductions (MFR), the exceeded area will be < 1% in 2050. In addition, the area where limits for the nitrate concentration in soils are violated is predicted to be smaller under MFR than under CLE. Using the most stringent criterion for nitrate ([NO3] <0.3 mg/l), the area with nitrate concentrations in excess of the critical limit is about 33% in 2050 under CLE, but only 12% under MFR. Recovery, i.e. attaining non-violation of the criterion, is also much faster under MFR than under CLE.

Climate change leads to higher weathering rates and nitrogen uptake in the model, but positive effects on recovery from acidification are limited compared to current climate, and differences between the A1 and B2 climate change scenarios were small. Target loads for 2050 exist for 4% of the area for Al/Bc = 1 and for 12% of the area when using a criterion of ANC = 0 for the soil solution. In about 30% of the area where meaningful target loads exists, the computed target load is lower than the deposition under MFR, and thus cannot be attained with current emission abatement technologies.