Progress of major emitters towards climate targets

Faster renewable uptake and additional policies result in emission projections substantially lower than our 2023 projections 

Compared to our 2023 update, we project lower emissions under current policies. Our scenarios indicate approximately 5% lower emission levels in 2030 compared to our 2023 report. Although methodological revisions affected our projections, we observed marked improvements in the policies of many countries. Aggregated emissions for the 25 countries could be 2% below 2019 levels by 2025 and reach reductions of -10% to +4% compared to 2019 levels by 2030. A projected 10% reduction in emissions in the best-case scenario is positive but remains insufficient, given that limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires a 43% reduction in emissions in the same period. 

Twelve countries are likely on track to meet their unconditional NDCs with existing policies

 Six countries (Iran, Viet Nam, the Russian Federation, India, Mexico, and Ethiopia) are on track to meet their NDCs without needing to adopt any additional policies. Another six countries (China, Morocco, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the EU and South Africa) are likely on track to meet their targets, but they need to fully implement existing policies and possibly take additional actions to ensure they stay on track. Four out of eight countries with a conditional target (Iran, India, Mexico, and Egypt) are also on track to meet those. These countries are well-positioned to increase the ambition of their NDCs in the new submission round in 2025. 

The report includes detailed country factsheets for all 25 countries, providing information about climate policy developments, emission projections, NDC descriptions, key mitigation policies, and key GHG indicators.