A prospective evaluation of the ambition of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework goals and targets

To assess the extent to which the collective ambitions of Parties and non-state actors are sufficient for achieving the 2050 GBF goals, it is necessary to understand to what extent the global implementation of the action targets for 2030 enables the realisation of the 2050 goals. So far, such information has been lacking. In this report, we make a three-fold contribution to ongoing discussions and negotiations on the global review. First, we provide a scenario analysis of the potential contribution of the global implementation of action-targets in the GBF for the realisation of A: ‘Protect and Restore’ and B: ‘Prosper with Nature’, compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Second, we explore if and how the national targets submitted to the CBD reporting tool can be used for a global scenario analysis and complementary analysis on policies and measures as employed by countries. Analysis of the national targets aligned with the GBF targets included in the scenario-analysis also showed that, as of yet, many of them are not quantified or specific, making future evaluations of ambition a challenge. And finally, we argue for a purpose-oriented, multi-actor, and multiple-evidence base approach for the global review.

A purpose-oriented approach will ensure that the global review sends clear signals and recommendations to both Parties and non-state actors about the necessary actions to achieve the changes needed. This is particularly important given the complexity of biodiversity governance, where the success of the GBF depends on a dynamic and adaptive process that includes, for example, mainstreaming across all levels of government. By promoting an inclusive, multi-actor, and forward-looking process, the review can act as a facilitating tool, encouraging actors to revise and enhance their contributions and commitments.