Countries' climate mitigation commitments under the 'South-North Dialogue' Proposal - a quantitative analysis using the FAIR 2.1 world model

The 'South-North Dialogue Proposal', developed by researchers from both developing and industrialised countries, outlines an approach for an 'equitable' differentiation of future climate mitigation commitments among developed and developing countries. This approach is based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate. The report provides a quantitative analysis of the implications of the proposal in terms of countries' commitments and costs. The analysis focuses on a "political willingness" scenario and on four scenarios leading to the stabilisation of CO2-equivalent concentrations at 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm, respectively. Use is made of the new FAIR 2.1 world model, i.e. the FAIR 2.1 model at the level of countries, using as input data for population, GDP and emissions from emission scenarios at the national level. The analysis shows that for the stringent stabilisation targets many developing countries will have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries adopt ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The political willingness scenario will probably not suffice to limit warming of the earth's atmosphere to a level under 20 C.