Decarbonisation Paths for the Dutch Aviation Sector

Several developments are necessary to reduce CO₂ emissions from aviation. This paper looks at the pipeline of technologies and measures that may become available to achieve CO₂-neutrality by 2050. Decarbonisation of jet fuel is the most important measure in aviation to make it net CO₂-neutral. In practice, this can be achieved with biofuels or synthetic fuels, or in a few decades with a broad deployment of new energy carriers such as hydrogen and electricity. Newer generations of aircraft will continue the trend of improved fuel efficiency. Coupled together with more efficient aviation operations, there will be less energy necessary to transport people and goods to their destinations. 

Sustainable aviation will, however, be more expensive, as the SAFs cost substantially more than fossil fuel. As a result, price increases will slow the growth in demand for flying. This paper estimates what decarbonisation of jet fuel would mean for the number of air passengers in the Netherlands and draws conclusions on the sustainable energy requirements for flights departing from the Netherlands in 2050.