Decarbonising the cement industry: Findings from coupling prospective life cycle assessment of clinker with integrated assessment model scenarios

Our study indicates that climate change impacts of clinker production may decrease from about 1.03 kg CO₂-eq/kg clinker in 2020 to 0.94 (3.5 °C-baseline), 0.20 (2 °C-compliant), and 0.16 (1.5°C-compliant) kg CO₂-eq/kg clinker in 2060 for the global average. This corresponds to a 10% (3.5 °C-baseline), 81% (2 °C-compliant) and 84% (1.5 °C-compliant) decrease by 2060 compared to 2020. Under these scenarios, global clinker production alone would require 5 –11% of the remaining end-of-century carbon budget for the 2 °C and 1.5 °C-target, respectively. 

While the climate change impacts are substantially reduced, our study also indicates that the transition pathways shift the burden towards other impact categories, such as ionising radiation, ozone depletion, material resources, and land use. Developing IAM-compatible scenarios for more product groups helps to increase the coherence of pLCA studies. As this study is based on an IAM heavily reliant on carbon capture and storage and bioenergy, future research should explore the effects of different technology pathways and alternative mitigation strategies.