Exploring post-Kyoto climate regimes for differentiation of commitments to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations

Three climate regimes are explored:

1. Multi-stage approach, gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules
2. Contraction & Convergence approach, with universal participation and a convergence of per capita emissions
3. Triptych approach, a sector and technology-oriented approach, reflecting processes of technological improvement and transition to a low-carbon economy

The FAIR (Framework to Assess International Regimes for the differentiation of commitments) model is used to explore the implications of these regimes on future emission allowances. It is not the objective to reach any conclusions about what type of regime would be preferred. The quantification analysis of each of the approaches shows that for stabilising CO₂ concentration at 450 ppmv by 2100, substantive reductions of Annex I emissions are needed, as well as timely participation of the non-Annex I countries in global emissions control. The schemes are also qualitatively evaluated on criteria for environmental effectiveness, equity, flexibility and operational requirements.