Fluorocarbons and SF6. Global emission inventory and options for control

It has been estimated to what extent HFCs, PFCs, FICs and SF₆ replace the demand for CFCs, halons and CH₃CCl₃ as would have been the case without the Montreal Protocol. The most realistic substitution rates are estimated for aerosols (9-11%), cleaning (<5%), open-foam blowing (1-2%), closed-foam blowing (40-45%), stationary refrigeration (>50%), mobile airconditioning (<75%), fire extinguishers (45-50%) and other (30%).

Emissions are presented for several scenarios.In the reference scenario, reflecting a situation without specific regulations for HFCs, PFCs, FICs and SF6, the most important applications are in 2040 stationary cooling (60%), closed foam (19%) and cleaning (8%). The most widely used halocarbon is HFC-134a (40%). The 2040 CO₂-equivalent emissions of HFCs, PFCs, FICs and SF₆ amount to 8 - 14% of the 1990 global CO₂ emissions in the scenario without HFC policy. Restricting use to stationary cooling and closed-foam blowing, which are applications with the lowest annual loss rates, decrease halocarbon emissions by about 40 - 50% relative to the reference scenario. When only compounds with low global warming potentials are used, CO₂-equivalent emissions will 90% lower than in the reference scenario.