Once an outsider, always an outsider? The accessibility of the Dutch rural housing market among locals and non-locals

A distinction has been made between people with a preference to move to a home within the rural area of their current municipality (intended local movers) and people with a preference to move to a rural area outside their current municipal area (intended non-local movers). A multilevel multinomial logistic regression analysis was employed on data from two Dutch housing surveys that were enriched with register data from the longitudinal Social Statistical Database (SSD).

Although many studies on rural gentrification claim that rural areas are becoming more ‘middle class’, and that original rural residents are being outbid by non-locals and thus are forced to move elsewhere, this study demonstrates that in spite of their lower income levels, intended local movers are far more likely to find a new home within their preferred rural location than are intended non-local movers. Intended non-local movers move more often to a location other than the one they initially preferred. Urbanites are more likely to move to another or within the same urban area, and non-urbanites are more likely to move a rural area in a municipality other than the one they initially preferred. People’s place of origin largely determines whether they realise a move to their preferred location or adjust their rural location preferences. It may be that rural location preferences of intended non-local movers are more fluid and less pronounced and that this makes them more willing to move to another location than the one they initially preferred. Furthermore, factors such as place attachment and the existence of local ties may cause intended local movers more often to remain in their current home rather than move out of the areas. Our findings suggest that ties to the residential environment are more important to finding new housing in one’s preferred rural location than are financial resources.