Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal

To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C target, we show that demand and technological interventions can substantially lower emission levels in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings, and transport) and reduce reliance on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. 

Specifically, demand measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual bioenergy with carbon capture and storage use to 0.5–2.2 GtCO2e per year and 1.9–7.0 GtCO2e per year, respectively, compared with 10.3 GtCO2e per year in the default 1.5 °C scenario. 

Dietary change plays a critical role in the demand measures given its large share in residual agricultural emissions.

Authors

PBL Authors
Maarten van den Berg Harmen Sytze de Boer Vassilis Daioglou Mark Dekker Jonathan Doelman Michel den Elzen Mathijs Harmsen Mariësse van Sluisveld Elke Stehfest Isabela Schmidt Tagomori Detlef van Vuuren
Other authors
Oreane Y. Edelenbosch
Andries F. Hof
Hsing-Hsuan Chen
Stratos Mikropoulos
Willem-Jan van Zeist

Specifications

Publication title
Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal
Publication date
7 June 2024
Publication type
Article
Publication language
English
Magazine
Nature Climate Change
Issue
14, pages 715–722 (2024)
Product number
5554