Scenario development to explore the future of Europe's rural areas

Abstract

Changes in rural areas, such as depopulation and land abandonment, but also intensification and loss of biodiversity, usually proceed very slowly yet are often irreversible. A scenario study (called EURURALIS) was carried out by Wageningen University and Research Centre in combination with the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency to stimulate the strategic discussion among both national policy makers and policy makers at the European Union level on the future of Europe's rural areas and the role of policy instruments. After a review of previous scenario studies, the choice was made to elaborate strategic scenarios, built on a 2 × 2 matrix, where the axes represent the most critical uncertainties.

The four scenarios were structured along two axes:

1. ranging from increasing globalisation to a world of regional economic and cultural blocks
2. ranging from a future of lean governments to a future with ambitious government regulation

The storylines were inspired by earlier work such as the emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SRES), the GEO-3 scenarios and scenarios of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). The current scenario study includes the 25 EU member states and had a time horizon up to 2030. The scenarios were quantified with a chain of models, ranging from global models to a spatially explicit model, which simulated land use on a 1 km × 1 km grid for the whole EU. The scenarios and their outcomes are presented by means of a CD. This paper describes the steps taken, proceeding from the general aim of the study on to the scenario set-up and then to the actual storylines and quantification of the scenarios. The outcomes of the scenarios are presented in three other articles in this issue.