Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

Adaptation to future climate change

The researchers’ analysis examines a wide range of climate policy scenarios from different emission models and shows that, in virtually all of these scenarios, the average surface temperature rise will be reduced, but not avoided. The ranges of 21st century climate change published so far by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did not take into account efforts to reduce climate change. In this study, the researchers projected the effects of multiple mitigation strategies using two climate models and taking into account uncertainties in the climate system and carbon cycle. The analysis reports an average minimum warming by the year 2100 of 1.4 degrees Celsius from baseline levels in 1990, for the most stringent emission reduction scenarios. While the minimum temperature rise is significantly less than that projected without emission mitigation policies, it is higher than previous reports that focused on climate inertia alone.