The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032 Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

GEO is UNEP’s flagship report series. It delivers modern environmental assessments based on broad and active participation by a large number of expert organisations. A key role is played by the GEO network of collaborating centres, carefully spread over the regions of the world. In fact, the development of this network is considered as important as the GEO reports.

Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO ‘sub-regions’, such as Eastern Africa, South Asia and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions – and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable.

The report details the analytical methods applied to the GEO-3 scenarios − Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First − and records the results of the analyses. It also provides an account of key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses.

Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global−regional involvement and linkages?

The report is intended for those interested in the background of the GEO scenarios, for experts interested in using region-specific findings of forward-looking studies on the environment and sustainable development, and for practitioners carrying out worldwide and regional assessments, like future GEO reports.