Towards patterns of vulnerability. Export-oriented agriculture and the oil palm case

The global demand for palm oil, as an edible oil and energy crop, has risen substantially. The production of palm oil is an important driver for deforestation. Palm oil production in Indonesia shows a pattern of vulnerability, in which the well-being of local communities is affected, for example, through conflicts, health loss, and increased insecurity. At the same time palm oil has become an important economic factor in Indonesia, providing employment and income. Current production practices of palm oil are paired with environmental problems (loss of biodiversity, land degradation and pollution by pesticides and fertiliser use) and the worsening of social aspects such as conflict and lack of land rights. This report applies the vulnerability concept to make these patterns visible. The formalization of this pattern of vulnerability into a systems-dynamic representation makes further model-based analyses of the underlying mechanisms and the consequences on the well-being and the environment and biodiversity possible. Based on this formalization, in a next step policy instruments that minimize negative impacts on people and the environment can be explored.