Uncertainty from Model Calibration: Applying a New Method to Transport Energy Demand Modelling

Here, an automated model calibration procedure was developed and tested for transport sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model describes energy use on the basis of activity levels, structural change and autonomous and price-induced energy efficiency improvements. We found that the model could reasonably reproduce historic data under different sets of parameter values, leading to different projections of future energy demand levels. Projected energy use for 2030 shows a range of 44–95% around the best-fit projection. Two different model interpretations of the past can generally be distinguished:

1. high useful energy intensity and major energy efficiency improvements;
2. or low useful energy intensity and little efficiency improvement.

Generally, the first lead to higher future energy demand levels than the second, but model and insights do not provide decisive arguments to attribute a higher likelihood to one of the alternatives.