Vulnerability Concept and its Application to Food Security

Vulnerability describes the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a hazard, and thereby identifies unsustainable states and processes. The operationalisation is presented in a framework, which incorporates the three elements of vulnerability, i.e. exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. The framework links model outcomes, represented as indicators, towards an overall measure of sustainability of a certain sector or system. The overall vulnerability is determined by the potential impact (exposure plus sensitivity) and the coping capacity, which is the impact that may occur given projected global change and the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes or structures can moderate or offset the potential for damage.

The advantages of the approach are the transparency of the indicator framework and the linkage of the framework with simulation models (existing knowledge). To test the methodology, it is applied on the issue of food security, resulting in a measure for the overall vulnerability of countries towards food shortages. The results of this analysis are in line with the degree of food deprivation on a regional scale, as determined by the FAO. These similarities in results indicate that the chosen indicator framework is a reasonable proxy for food security and that the conceptual framework gives good prospects for the analysis of other unsustainable states and processes.