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Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments of major emitting countries: 2022 Update

This report is prepared by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and IIASA and presents a preliminary assessment of progress by 25 countries toward the achievement of the mitigation components of their 2030 targets. More specifically, the report provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 2030, considering existing, and in some cases planned, climate and energy policies, and compares them with the emissions implied by the NDCs. In this year’s update, we compare updated NDC submissions to the original ones submitted between 2014 and 2016 to assess how countries’ NDCs compare to each other and whether current policies are sufficient to meet them.

Emissions to remain above 2015 levels

Emissions under current policies are projected to remain above 2015 levels in most countries (16) analysed and range from a decrease of 40% to an increase of 70% between 2015 and 2030 (Figure 1). Of the 25 countries, the lower end of the 2030 economy wide GHG emission range is expected to be 4% below 2015 levels under current policies. Although the upper end of the emissions range still results in an increase of 11% in the same period. These key metrics remain mostly unchanged since our 2021 update report.

Additionally, emissions in the group of countries analysed are projected to reach 36.2-41.8 GtCO2e by 2030, which corresponds to a change between -4% and +11% compared to 2019, pre-pandemic levels. This finding suggests that countries remain far off track to meet the collective goals of the Paris Agreement, which require emissions to be 43% below 2019 levels by 2030.

Figure 1. 2030 emissions under current policies compared to 2015 levels. The emissions coverage for GHG emissions is consistent with the scope of NDC targets (figure produced by authors).

Few countries improved their NDCs since 2021 Glasgow call to update targets

Only 11 out of the 25 countries are on track to meet their latest NDC targets. This number remains unchanged compared to our 2021 update. Eight are on track to also meet their updated NDC targets. 14 countries are not on track to meet their updated targets, and two of the 25 countries have not submitted an NDC update. However, there are some national differences. Brazil was on track to meet its targets but is now off track due to an increase in land use emission projections. Indonesia was on track to meet its unconditional NDC target but is now set to miss it due to an increase in land-use historical emissions. Mexico was close to meet its target and now is well on track due to revision in emission inventories. Egypt did not have a quantifiable target in our 2021 report and is now on track to meet its NDC target.

The report includes detailed country fact sheets for all 25 countries, each providing information about climate policy developments, emission projections, NDC descriptions, key mitigation policies and key GHG indicators.