The Brazilian Proposal and other Options for International Burden Sharing: an evaluation of methodological and policy aspects using the FAIR model

The original methodology proposed was found to be scientifically incorrect. The revised Brazilian model represents a major improvement with respect to the original version but still contains a few shortcomings. These can all be improved by corrections or by importing techniques already available in other models. The FAIR model (Framework to Assess International Regimes for burden sharing) was developed to compare the Brazilian approach with other options for international burden sharing. Burden-sharing criteria accounting for historical emissions and/or based on a per capita approach are favourable for developing countries, while inclusion of anthropogenic emissions of all greenhouse gases and land-use emissions is favourable for the industrialised countries.

Using an indicator later in the cause-effect chain of climate change is favourable for developing countries. Global application of the Brazilian approach would imply that all regions/countries would have to start contributing to global emission control immediately, irrespective of their level of economic development. To account for differences in level of economic development, a threshold for participation could be introduced. A participation threshold based on world average per capita emissions seems particularly interesting, as it will result in a global convergence in per capita emission permits over time. It rewards emission reductions by the industrialised countries, while providing an incentive to developing countries to limit their emission growth. Finally, preliminary results are presented for the global application of a sector-oriented approach to international burden.