Towards Housing System Dynamics

Housing policy research studies the many complexities of housing markets and housing policy, e.g. in terms of housing itself, the various time frames of housing market processes, the interaction between housing, demographic development and the macro economy, and the many institutional aspects of housing markets and government policies. System dynamics is a computer simulation methodology, designed for precisely such complex social systems. But despite the apparent match, there is currently no systematic cooperation between these two disciplines.

The case studies described in the thesis cover themes such as the interaction between greenfield construction and urban renewal, the dynamic effect of zoning and residual land markets on housing prices and construction, the impact of changes in eligibility regulations for social housing on different income groups, and the dynamics of the Dutch mortgage market.

The thesis concludes with a set of over twenty modelling building blocks for housing market simulation and recommendations on how to embed system dynamics modelling in contemporary housing research.