Narratives for the “Half Earth” and “Sharing The Planet” scenarios

In this report, we present the qualitative narratives for both scenarios and a literature review on topics of conservation, agriculture and governance mechanisms that provides the background to these narratives. Particular attention is given to elaborating theoretical premises for each scenarios: topics of values of nature and human-nature relationship are thus central to this report. To address these latter points, the report draws on previous PBL work on nature’s perspective in the European context and on IPBES work on values of nature.

Half of the Earth: conserving wilderness and intensifying food production

Half Earth (HE) scenarios draws upon recent proposals, such as that of E.O Wilson, Nature Needs Half and the Global Deal for Nature. Under this scenario, nature is protected for its intrinsic value and conservation is envisioned to separate humans pressures from nature, halt species loss, retain ecological processes and protect wilderness. Expansion of Protected Areas will be the main conservation strategy in order to cover around 50% of the earth surface by 2050. Agriculture undergoes a process of intensification in order to spare land for nature, increase food production and reduce environmental externalities.

Sharing the Planet: bridging humans and nature in shared landscape

Sharing the Planet (SP) scenario aims at combining mainstream ecosystem services and landscape approaches to conservation with more radical approaches, such as that of Convivial Conservation. Under this scenario, natural and human systems are integrated to form shared and multifunctional landscapes where nature is conserved for its instrumental as well as relational values. Sustainable use of resources and the optimization of nature’s contribution to people are the focus of this scenario. The agricultural system is ecologically intensified by means of different approaches, such as agroecology, agroforestry, organic agriculture.