Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways
The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)…
Energy demand and emissions of the non-energy sector
The demand for fossil fuels for non-energy purposes such as production of bulk chemicals is poorly understood. In this study we analyse data on non-energy demand and disaggregate it across key…
The effect of updated pledges and business-as-usual projections, and new agreed rules on expected global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
Since the climate negotiations in Copenhagen (2009), many countries have pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. These pledges were 'anchored' in the 2010 Cancún Agreements. Since…
Actual global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) reached a new record of 34.5 billion tonnes in 2012. Yet, the increase in global CO 2 emissions in that year slowed down to 1.1% (or 1.4%, not…
Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios
Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto…
Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios
This paper explores the climate consequences of “delayed near-term action” and “staged accession” scenarios for limiting warming below 2 ° Celsius (C). The stabilization of greenhouse gas…
Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report noted that Annex I countries’ targets for 2020 would need to be 25% to 40% below the 1990 level to be in line with the 2° Celsius (C) target. What is the equivalent…
Countries’ contributions to climate change: effect of accounting for all greenhouse gases, recent trends, basic needs and technological progress
Discussions at UN climate negotiations tend to focus on which countries have contributed most to climate change. This contribution depends on the methods for calculating both historical and current…
Cost of greenhouse gas mitigation - comparison between TIMER and WorldScan
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency uses the TIMER and Worldscan models to assess the costs and effects of global climate change policies. Both models have their strengths and weaknesses…
The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets
While most long-term mitigation scenario studies build on a broad portfolio of mitigation technologies, there is quite some uncertainty about the availability and reduction potential of these…
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