The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation
Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with no mitigation…
The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets
The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report…
Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century
There are by now many studies on estimation of uncertainty of climate system properties and model parameters but still only few on probabilistic climate projections. Moreover, most of these studies…
Impact of future land use and land cover changes on atmospheric chemistry‐climate interactions
To demonstrate potential future consequences of land cover and land use changes beyond those for physical climate and the carbon cycle, we present an analysis of large-scale impacts of land cover and…
The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord Pledges Sufficient to Limit Global Warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C?
It is estimated that, in order to have a likely chance (over 66%) of limiting global mean temperature increase to 2 °C, annual greenhouse gas emissions need to stay around 44 gigatonnes, by 2020. If…
A quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change: Does discounting still matter?
Integrated assessment models have been widely used to inform policymakers about attractive climate response strategies. An important application of integrated assessment models is cost-benefit…
Assessing 20th century climate–vegetation feedbacks of land-use change and natural vegetation dynamics
This study describes the coupling of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), Lund–Potsdam–Jena Model for managed land (LPJmL), with the general circulation model (GCM), Simplified…
Policy research programme on particulate matter. Main results and policy consequences
Recent research has clarified a number of facts about particulate matter in the atmosphere and has overturned a number of assumptions. For example, it is now clear that a much greater proportion of…
How to deal with indirect land-use change in the EU Renewable Energy Directive?
Biofuels based on agricultural crops have the risk of causing indirect land use change with substantial greenhouse gas emissions. European policy to stimulate innovative solutions without these…
What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions
Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active…
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