Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India

This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 degree Celsius target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development.

Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies.

Authors

PBL Authors
Paul Lucas Michel den Elzen Detlef van Vuuren
Other authors
P.R. Shukla
Wenying Chen
Bas J. van Ruijven
Subash Dhar

Specifications

Publication title
Multi-model analyse of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime
Publication date
2 October 2013
Publication type
Article
Page count
11
Publication language
English
Magazine
Energy Policy
Issue
63
Product number
951