Climate and Energy Outlook of the Netherlands 2024

Losing sight of the 2030 climate goal; additional policy with rapid effects is necessary 

It is extremely unlikely that the Netherlands will reach the legally binding climate goal of 55% emissions reduction in 2030. With current implemented policy (‘adopted and proposed’), we are on track for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 44-52% in 2030, relative to 1990 levels. Calculable plans (‘scheduled policy’) contribute little to this: a net reduction of 45-52%. Only additional policy that can rapidly deliver reductions can bring the goal back in view. To reach the goal with a probability of 50%, an additional 16 megatonnes of emissions reduction is necessary by 2030; to reach the goal with an extremely high probability (95%), an additional 24 megatonnes of reduction is required. 

The KEV 2024 also shows that numerous plans have been worked out over the past two years. However, the maximum projected emission reduction in 2030 is lower than was projected in the KEV 2023, due to setbacks in implementation of policy and cancelled policy measures.

European emission target ESR well within reach 

The Netherlands is on track to meet its European emission target in the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) for the sectors built environment, mobility, agriculture, and small industry. These sectors have a cumulative emissions budget of 830 megatonnes for the period 2021-2030. In the projection, the Netherlands stays well below this figure with 781-819 megatonnes, which is partly due to the sharp decrease in emissions over the past two years because of COVID-19, higher energy prices, and the rapid growth in wind- and solar energy.

European goals on renewable energy and energy savings require attention 

The European goal for renewable energy for the Netherlands has been raised significantly last year, from 27% by 2030 to 39%. The now projected 30-37%, therefore, is well below the target. The European goals on energy savings, equally tightened last year, also require more attention.

Insufficient emissions reductions on the way towards 2040 and 2050 

This KEV also contains a projection for 2035 and a look towards 2040. These indicate that the speed of emissions reduction under current policy is insufficient to reach an indicative emissions reduction of 90% in 2040 in an EU context (as established by the European Commission), or to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.