UNEP Emissions Gap report 2024

Nations must close huge emissions gap in new climate pledges and deliver immediate action, or 1.5°C lost 

If all promises for 2030 (NDCs) are fully and ambitiously realized the temperature rise could be limited to 2.6 °C. Therefore it is very important for nations to submit more ambitious updated NDCs early next year ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil. This is a pivotal moment, as new NDCs are only formulated every five years. 

The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming. Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming. Under these scenarios – which all operate on a probability of over 66 per cent – temperatures would continue to rise into the next century. 

Adding additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges. The report also looks at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 per cent by 2030 and 37 per cent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs. 

The consequences of delayed action are also highlighted. The cuts required are relative to 2019 levels, but greenhouse gas emissions have since grown to a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. While this makes a marginal difference to the overall cuts required from 2019-2030, the delay in action means that 7.5 per cent must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C, and 4 per cent for 2°C. The size of the annual cuts required will increase with every year’s delay.

1.5°C still technically possible, but massive effort needed 

The report shows that there is technical potential for emissions cuts in 2030 up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent – which is around 52 per cent of emissions in 2023 – and 41 gigatons in 2035. This would bridge the gap to 1.5°C in both years. Increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27 per cent of the total reduction potential in 2030 and 38 per cent in 2035. Action on forests could deliver around 20 per cent of the potential in both years. Other strong options include efficiency measures, electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors. 

This potential illustrates it is possible to meet the COP28 targets of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems.