Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations

This study provides a conceptual framework for exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on important economic, political and environmental considerations. 

Combinations of the proposed emission reduction ranges for Annex I countries as a group (25–40% below 1990 levels) and non-Annex I as a group (15–30% below baseline) by 2020 to limit global warming to 2 °C are analysed. Results of the FAIR model with costs estimates based on two energy system models are used.

The range of targets that comply with a set of criteria for economic, political and environmental considerations is smaller than that by environmental considerations alone. More specifically, according to our criteria, a 30% Annex I reduction target below 1990 levels, combined with a 20% non-Annex I reduction target below baseline emission levels (i.e. 20 to 30% above 2005 levels), is the only combination of targets fulfilling all our criteria for both energy system models. Otherwise, reaching the 2 °C target becomes less likely, technically infeasible, or non-Annex I abatement costs are likely to exceed those of Annex I, a result, which we consider less plausible from a political viewpoint in our conceptual framework.

Authors

Angelica Mendoza Beltrana, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Andries F. Hof, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jasper van Vliet

Specifications

Publication title
Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations
Publication date
16 September 2011
Publication type
Publication
Magazine
Energy Policy
Product number
486