Global Carbon Budget 2015

We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E_FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E_LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G_ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO₂ sink (S_OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S_OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO₂ measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO₂ sink (S_LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO₂, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands.

All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), E_FF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, E_LUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, S_OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹. For the year 2014 alone, E_FF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr⁻¹ that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, E_LUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, G_ATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, S_OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and S_LAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr⁻¹. G_ATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger S_LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014.

For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in E_FF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of E_FF and assumed constant E_LUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO₂ will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO₂) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from E_FF and 25 % from E_LUC.