2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and possibilities of limiting the use of BECCS and bio-energy

This report presents a set of scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C and 1.5 °C, by either using full-technology reduction options as included in the IMAGE and POLES models, or by limiting the use of bio-energy in energy production and combining it with carbon capture and storage. Under these scenarios, global emission reductions by 2050 will be between about 50% and 65% for the 2 °C target and 70% to 80% for 1.5 °C, compared to 1990 levels.

There are technically feasible scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C or further down to 1.5 °C

The 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios were assessed using the IMAGE (PBL) and POLES (JRC) models. The scenarios include the option of a full portfolio of technologies being available. Such scenarios rely on rapid and deep emission reductions that are achieved through a mix of i) energy efficiency improvements, ii) low-carbon energy options, iii) negative emission options (e.g. bio-energy with CCS (BECCS) and afforestation), and iv) reduction in non-CO2 gases. Negative emissions play a substantial role in these full technology scenarios. It should, however, be noted that negative emission options may require large amounts of land.

It is technically possible to achieve stringent climate goals and rely less on negative emissions and bio-energy

Alternative scenarios that rely less on BECCS and bio-energy have also been explored. Less reliance on BECCS can be achieved, for instance, through further penetration of renewable energy, rapid energy efficiency improvements, lifestyle changes, more reforestation and a more rapid reduction in non-CO2 gases. The scenario results, on both a global and EU level, have been used in the European Commission’s Long-term strategy document, which calls for a climate-neutral Europe by 2050.

Authors

PBL Authors
Kendall Esmeijer Michel den Elzen Detlef van Vuuren David Gernaat Jonathan Doelman
Other authors
Kimon Keramidas,
Jacques Despres,
Andreas Schmitz,
Stephane Tchung-Ming
Nicklas Forsell,
Petr Havlik
Stefan Frank

Specifications

Publication title
2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and possibilities of limiting the use of BECCS and bio-energy
Publication date
7 December 2018
Publication type
Report
Page count
75
Publication language
English
Product number
3133