A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. 

Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

Authors

PBL Authors
Detlef van Vuuren
Other authors
Shinichiro Fujimori
Volker Krey,
Ken Oshiro
Masahiro Sugiyama
Puttipong Chunark
Bundit Limmeechokchai
Shivika Mittal
Osamu Nishiura
Chan Park
Salony Rajbhandari
Diego Silva Herran
Tran Thanh Tu
Shiya Zhao
Yuki Ochi
Priyardarshi R. Shukla
Toshihiko Masui
Phuong V. H. Nguyen
Anique-Marie Cabardos
Keywan Riahi

Specifications

Publication title
A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions
Publication date
27 May 2021
Publication type
Article
Publication language
English
Magazine
Nature Climate Change
Issue
11, pages 472–480 (2021)
Product number
4665