Non-ETS emission targets for 2030

Post-2020 European climate policy framework: indication of non-ETS emission targets for 2030

As European Member States are making progress towards their 2020 targets in the Effort Sharing Decision, the attention of policymakers is shifting towards a framework beyond 2020. The European Commission has launched a discussion with its Green Paper on a possible policy framework for 2030. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has analysed the effects of various assumptions on Member States' non-ETS emission targets for 2030.

Distribution of the European target over Member States

For possible non-ETS targets for 2030, we assumed a Europe-wide emission reduction target of 40% for 2030, compared to 1990 levels. This target is considered by the European Commission as the most cost-efficient to achieve a low-carbon economy by 2050. The 2030 target was split into a target for emissions covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) (mostly large-scale electricity generation and industrial sectors) and one for emissions that are not covered by the ETS (non-ETS) (such as emissions from transport, agriculture and houses). European non-ETS emissions need to be reduced by around 30% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. The non-ETS reduction target of 30% is then distributed over the Member States by using similar effort sharing principles that are applied in the EU Effort Sharing Decision for 2020, but with different targets assumed for the least wealthy Member State.

Highest emission targets for 2030 are for the wealthiest Member States

If the EU decides to reduce its emissions by 40% by 2030,  the wealthiest three Member States (Luxembourg, Denmark and Sweden) need to reduce their emissions by 47% to 52% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels, depending on the emission target assigned to the least wealthy Member State (Bulgaria). For the Netherlands, PBL found non-ETS emission reduction targets for 2030 of 40% to 43%, compared to 2005 emission levels.