The Emissions Gap Report 2015

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report is an authoritative assessment undertaken by a team of leading scientists from around the world. Michel den Elzen of PBL Netherlands Environmental Agency was one of the lead authors of the INDC assessment chapter. This sixth Emissions Gap Report presents an assessment of the 119 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 1 October 2015, covering 146 countries (including the European Union submitting as a bloc) and up to 88 per cent of global GHG emissions in 2012.

INDC reduce significantly compared to business-as-usual levels

The INDCs represent GHG emission reductions of 4 to 6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (GtCO2e/yr) in 2030 compared to projected emissions under current policy trajectories. 2030 projections based on current policies are themselves 5 GtCO₂e per year lower than the business-as-usual projection of 65 GtCO₂e, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report scenarios, which assumed no additional climate policies are put in place after 2010.

Reductions are only half-way to meet 2 degree

This indicates that efforts to tackle climate change, including current policies and full implementation of the INDCs, could cut up to 11 GtCO₂e from projected emissions in 2030. This is however around half of the total required to reach the global emission level of 42 GtCO₂e in 2030 consistent with having a likely chance (>66 percent) of staying below 2°C in 2100.