2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and possibilities of limiting the use of BECCS and bio-energy

There are technically feasible scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C or further down to 1.5 °C

The 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios were assessed using the IMAGE (PBL) and POLES (JRC) models. The scenarios include the option of a full portfolio of technologies being available. Such scenarios rely on rapid and deep emission reductions that are achieved through a mix of i) energy efficiency improvements, ii) low-carbon energy options, iii) negative emission options (e.g. bio-energy with CCS (BECCS) and afforestation), and iv) reduction in non-CO₂ gases. Negative emissions play a substantial role in these full technology scenarios. It should, however, be noted that negative emission options may require large amounts of land.

It is technically possible to achieve stringent climate goals and rely less on negative emissions and bio-energy

Alternative scenarios that rely less on BECCS and bio-energy have also been explored. Less reliance on BECCS can be achieved, for instance, through further penetration of renewable energy, rapid energy efficiency improvements, lifestyle changes, more reforestation and a more rapid reduction in non-CO₂ gases. The scenario results, on both a global and EU level, have been used in the European Commission’s Long-term strategy document, which calls for a climate-neutral Europe by 2050.