A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model.

This model simulates energy use on the basis of changes in useful energy intensity, technology development (AEEI) and price responses (PIEEI). We find that different implementations of these factors yield behavioural model results. Model calibration uncertainty is identified as influential source for variation in future projections: amounting 30% to 100% around the best estimate. Energy modellers should systematically account for this and communicate calibration uncertainty ranges.

Authors

van Ruijven B, de Vries B, van Vuuren DP, van der Sluijs JP

Specifications

Publication title
A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data
Publication date
1 January 2010
Publication type
Article
Page count
13
Publication language
English
Magazine
Energy
Issue
Volume 35, Issue 1, Pages 269-282
Product number
92446