Beyond the Numbers: Understanding the Transformation Induced by INDCs

This report is the result of a collaboration under the MILES project, which includes 16 research institutes from different parts of the world. It concludes that the current INDCs imply an acceleration of action against climate change in major economies around the world, including in the electricity sector. At the same time, however, the INDCs are not likely to sufficiently stimulate other elements crucial to a low-carbon transition, such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), electric vehicles and sustainable urban planning. The report also concludes that the INDCs need to be strengthened to keep the 2 °C target within reach. The report explores a scenario that could possibly achieve this, which goes beyond the ambition level of the INDCs.

The study’s analysis of INDCs was funded by the European Commission and conducted by leading research teams worldwide. By investigating the concrete implications of INDCs for the low-carbon transformation beyond 2030, it supplements other assessments. For instance, PBL also provides an independent assessment of the contribution of the INDCs. In the MILES project, PBL has evaluated the emission reduction pathways for major economies and has contributed to the assessment of the effectiveness of INDCs.