Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO₂ storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO₂ storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected).

Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO₂ removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO₂ storage capacity.