Exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global emission projections

The IMF economic scenarios published in April 2020 were used as the point of reference. Furthermore, we review and summarise the most recent insights (up to June 2020) published in the literature on post-COVID emissions projections and green recovery trajectories, and provide a framework for analysing the ‘greenness’ of recovery packages, using Germany as a case study.

Projected emissions for 2030 are uncertain and could even increase

For the longer term, our calculations indicate that the impact of the general slowdown of the economy would lead to an annual global emission reduction of –2.5 to –4.5 gigatonnes CO₂  (–4% to –7%) by 2030, compared to recent pre-COVID policy projections, for IMF’s Baseline and Longer and New Outbreak scenario, respectively. However, in case of a rebound to fossil fuels, with lower decarbonisation rates, the 2030 emission reduction is projected to be smaller (–3.0 instead of –4.5 gigatonnes CO₂ in the Longer and New Outbreak scenario) (–5%) or may even turn into an increase (+0.5 instead of –2.5 gigatonnes CO₂ in the Baseline scenario) (+1%).

Framework for analysing the ‘greenness’ of recovery packages

Based on a classification defining ‘green’, ‘grey’ and ‘colourless’ measures, a pilot assessment has been conducted of the German Government’s EUR 130 billion fiscal stimulus package. ‘Green’ recovery measures account for approximately 31% of the package. Around 21% of the package is in line with the green measures defined by the International Energy Agency’s Sustainable Recovery Plan.