Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century

We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways.

The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m⁻² scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ^∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m⁻² scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ^∘C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.