Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries

Emissions remain above 2005 levels in most countries analysed

Absolute emissions levels vary considerably across the countries analysed. In this report, we present emissions projections using 2005 as a base year for reporting and comparability reasons. Economy-wide GHG emissions in the 26 countries as a group are expected to increase between 8% and 25% between 2005 and 2030 under current policies. Emissions are projected to remain above 2005 levels in most (16) countries analysed and range from a decrease of 51% between 2005 and 2030 to an increase of 140% in the same period

NDC updates reflect distinct ambition levels and affect progress towards emissions targets

Several countries analysed updated their NDCs between 2020 and 2021. A country that was off-track to meet their original NDC target will be further off-track once it has set itself a more ambitious target, though full implementation of current policies and possible enhanced policies should close this gap over time.

Our analysis indicates that further action is required in several major emitters analysed. Sixteen out of the 26 countries and regions analysed are on track or close to achieve the NDC targets they have previously set for themselves. Eight are on track to also meet their updated NDC targets (with another two countries being close). Eleven countries are off-track to meet their updated targets and five are still to submit updated NDCs.