Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models.

Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040.

We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

Authors

PBL Authors
Mathijs Harmsen Detlef van Vuuren
Other authors
Steven J. Smith
Jean Chateau
Kalyn Dorheim
Laurent Drouet
Olivier Durand-Lasserve
Oliver Fricko
Shinichiro Fujimori
Tatsuya Hanaoka
Jérôme Hilaire
Kimon Keramidas
Gunnar Luderer
Maria Cecilia P. Moura,
Keywan Riahi
Joeri Rogelj
Fuminori Sano
Kenichi Wada

Specifications

Publication title
Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis
Publication date
17 September 2020
Publication type
Article
Publication language
English
Magazine
Climatic Change
Product number
4283