Key role of forests in meeting climate targets and science needed for credible mitigation

The first global picture of country-based LULUCF net emissions

The European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and a team of international collaborators including Bristol University, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and University College London carried out the most thorough quantification and interpretation of the country mitigation plans in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, taking into consideration different ways of assessing LULUCF mitigation.  They used information and data reported by countries under the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, backed up with country data reported to the FAO, and compared it with independent estimates in the scientific literature.

The scientists estimated that with a full implementation of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions  (INDCs), the LULUCF sector will shift from being a net source of emissions (in 1990-2010) to a net absorber of CO₂ by 2030.

Forests are responsible for 25% of total planned emissions reduction

The scientists observe that the LULUCF contribution to mitigation can appear to be very different depending on the way countries calculate that contribution and on different future scenarios.

It is clear that countries – especially developing countries – expect a key contribution from the LULUCF sector in meeting their emissions reduction targets. Comparing the overall contribution of this sector to all other sectors, the scientists found that globally the contribution of the LULUCF sector amounts to about 25% of the total INDC emissions reduction.