Low stabilization scenarios and implications for major world regions from an integrated assessment perspective

In order to limit global mean temperature increase to less than 2°C, long-term greenhouse gas concentrations must remain low. This paper discusses how such low concentrations can be reached, based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework (including TIMER and FAIR). We show that the attainability of low greenhouse gas concentration targets, in particular 450 and 400 ppm CO2 equivalent critically depends on model assumptions, such as bio-energy potentials. Under standard model assumptions, these targets can be reached, although the lowest requires the use of bio-energy in combination with carbon-capture-and-storage. Regions are affected differently by ambitious climate policies in terms of energy and land use, although stringent emission reductions will be required in all regions. Resulting co-benefits of climate policy (such as energy security and air pollution) are also different across world regions.

Related articles in this special issue of The Energy Journal

• Managing the Low-Carbon Transition - From Model Results to Policies
• Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios
• The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs

More information on ADAM project

ADAM supports the EU in the development of post-2012 global climate policies, the definition of European mitigation policies to reach its 2020 goals, and the emergence of new adaptation policies for Europe with special attention to the role of extreme weather events.